Starting A New Affiliate Program Can Be A Challenge-Learn More Now

Want to start a new affiliate program but not sure whom to approach? Well, there are a number of ways in which you can get access to high quality, efficient affiliates - if you know where to look. Here's a first hand primer on how you can get the best affiliates.

Before you actually start hunting for the perfect set of affiliates, you will need to tune your mind into thinking like one.

That way you can prepare your affiliate program to cater to their requirements. It will also prevent you from receiving any surprises or shocks in future.

Most top quality super affiliates are concerned with the quality of the product they are promoting. They know that if they associate with a poor quality product they not only risk their reputation online but also earn less in terms of incentives.

That's why ensure you have built on a solid, high quality product to promote.

Make sure to establish a good incentive package that rewards affiliates well. Otherwise you risk losing out on top quality talent and just finding the mediocre affiliates. Make sure to have a good performance bonus package and perks as well.

No affiliate will want to join your affiliate program if they find you have never built affiliate sites!

This is one of the first things most affiliates will ask you. So start building your own affiliate sites to get access to more qualified affiliates.

You as an affiliate program owner will obviously need to track the affiliates' performance. For this there are plenty of tracking software available. However, make sure to use software which doesn't invade the affiliate's privacy and that he or she is comfortable with.

Else you risk losing them in the long run.

In order for your promotional efforts to be successful, you need to adequately train your affiliates. You also need to provide them with easy access to all possible promotional and advertising material. From banner ads, to textual copy, to links to specific sections of your site etc. - these will all help in propagating your product better. Get feedback.

It is always a good idea to ask for your affiliates' feedback on a continual basis. That way you know your expectations and theirs and also get to understand their concerns. If they have any problems, you should be ready to sort them out.

If you want access to high quality super affiliates, you'll want to notch up your conversion rates on the site

Any serious affiliate worth his salt will hate being taken for a ride. If they find out your site's sales conversions are very slow, they'll abandon your program and move on to something more lucrative. Make sure you tweak and fine tune your site to improve sales conversion rates.

It maybe extremely time consuming but communicating with each affiliate program on an individual basis may actually work. It's because serious affiliates usually disregard such emails as spam. Therefore if you want your email to stand out favorably, consider contacting them personally and personalize the email content. Make sure to include the website owner's name because you want to show that you made the effort to search for their name.

Things To Keep In Mind When It Comes To An Affiliate Program

Affiliate Programs has exploded on the internet. Thousands of people join them everyday. The Plug-in Profit Site is one of the best examples of such phenomenal success. If affiliate programs are so popular, so widely available and booming like mushrooms...Why do most affiliates have a hard time making them work? It could be that they’re not effectively marketing their business, or they didn’t develop a solid foundation for building their business. Nevertheless, some affiliates are making big bucks.

Many successful affiliates easily bring in incomes of $100,000 or more per year. Making anywhere from $5,000 to $50,000 per month is easier than you might think. Of course, many affiliates never make much money at all. They either fail or just plain give up.

One of the most important things to do when trying to succeed with a Home Based Business is to have a compelling reason why you want to work from home or start a home business. Write your reason (WHY) down and refer to it often especially when you need motivation or just to stay focus. For example, if you wanted to spend more time with your family, make your own schedule, or quit your job...write these reasons down and make them apart of you life.

Many people fail because they don’t have a clear vision of where they want to go, how to get there, or even where to start. First of all, you absolutely have to know what it is that you want. Then do some research on how to get there. There is an overwhelming number of work at home opportunities and business startup programs that you can investigate online. Just type those or similar terms into your internet browser to see the results that you get. However, be careful about the programs that you choose to participate in; we will talk more about that later. Just take the time to research and ask questions before you jump in.

Another way for you to stay focus and succeed online is to set your goals. Goals are an important part of your overall vision. For example, if you wanted to quit your job in one year, you have to have a plan on how to aggressively replace your current income. Developing your why, vision, and goals with the right Affiliate Programs will absolutely put you on the fast track to replacing your current income, and quitting your day job. Once you set your mind and heart in the right direction you will succeed at anything you choose to do.

So, lay the ground work for your future first by doing the things that I’m laying out for you here.

It‘s equally important to Choose the right types of Affiliate Programs to join. Subscription Affiliate Programs, in my opinion, is the best companies to join, because they offer immediate income possibilities. When someone signs up for a subscription program and pays their monthly or annual fee you will receive immediate residual income as long as they remain paid members. Subscription programs will pay you residual income for years to come.

Things To Remember About An Affiliate Program

Ask questions first before you join an affiliate program. Do a little research about the choices of program that you intend to join into. Get some answers because they will be the deciding point of what you will be achieving later on. Don't spend any money to join any affiliate program. Almost all the affiliate programs offered today are free to join. So, why you go for those that charge you some dollars before joining. How are referrals from an affiliate's site tracked and for how long do they remain in the system?

You need to be confident on the program enough to track those people you refer from your site. This is the only way that you can credit for a sale. The period of time that those people stay in the system is also important. This is because some visitors do not buy initially but may want to return later to make the purchase. Know if you will still get credit for the sale if it is done some months from a certain day.

Know conversation ration per hit. With this you will be able to know how much traffic needed to make sale for your affiliate program. This is based on average number of hits to a banner or text likes it takes to generate a sale based on all affiliate statistics. Every program is some different. some issue their checks once in a month, some issue twice or some issue every quarter. so, choose that one with which you are comfortable.

Many affiliate programs are setting a minimum earned commission amount that an affiliate must meet or exceed in order for their checks to be issued. What are the kinds of affiliate stats available? so, choose that affiliate program which is capable of offering detailed stats. And one more thing they always available online anytime you decide do check them out. A single tier program pays you only for the business you yourself have generated.

A two tier program pays you for the business, plus it also pays you a commission on the on the sales generated by any affiliate you sponsor in your program. Some two-tier programs are even paying small fees on each new affiliate you sponsor. More like a recruitment fee. So, it is important to know about affiliate program is it one tier or two tier affiliate program.

Constantly checking your individual stats is important to know how many impressions, hits and sales are already generated from your site. A hit is the one clicking on the banner or text links. and impressions are the number of times the banner or text link was viewed by a visitor of your site.

Is affiliate program also paying for the hits and impressions besides the commissions on sales? It is important that impressions and hits are also paid, as this will add to the earnings you get from the sales commission. This is especially important if the program you are in offers low sales to be able to hit ratio.

Wanna Make Lots Of Money-An Online Affiliate Program Just Might Be Your Answer

The Internet is an amazing thing. Never before in history has making money been so easy. You have instant access to hundreds of thousands of people with just a couple clicks of a button. To be successful with your online affliate program, you MUST know how to market a website.

The first thing you should understand is that a website is an advertising tool. If used in combination with the various marketing ideas, you can make a hefty income in a relatively short amount of time. If you learn to properly use these pay per click search engines, it could mean thousands to your bottom line in just a couple weeks. Use them incorrectly, and you're out some cash quickly. Lucky for you, we will give you the inside scoop here.

Just like all of the other elements of your marketing plan, website promotion can cost money. Fortunately, what you pay for the exposure is still dimes on the dollar compared to traditional advertising, but it is an expense none the less.

Pay per click search engines are a great idea, although they can get quite expensive if you aren't careful.

The main benefit of using a PPC, is you are getting highly targeted visitors to your website and you only pay when someone visits your site by clicking on that link. Opt in newsletters are basically a service you offer on your website that lets people sign up to read about your valuable information.

If you have knowledge about a topic that others could benefit from, you may do well with having a newsletter on your website. The first step is to gather a list of email addresses...and not just any list either. You have to get permission from the email address owner. Let me say this loudly....we are talking first-hand permission here.

You can do that by offering a newsletter sign up form on your site, by giving away monthly goodies or by petitioning door to door. The key here is to re-kindle in them a burning interest in your website offering. You can offer some sort of Newsletter Specials, industry news, how-to advice etc.

Once you have your list, schedule your email program so it is consistent and relevant to the needs and interests of your audience. Devoted advocates spread the word to their friends, relatives and office chums. And it doesn't cost you a penny for all of this free advertising.

If you do your job well, your reading audience will not only re-order they will become advocates.

You can also make good money from your newsletter once you get a couple of thousand subscribers. It is only a small amount of money if you look at how greatly it is going to benefit you in the long run and offers things such as text for a popup window, the scripts that handle signing up new subscribers, letting people unsubscribe at any time, lets you send email to your subscribers and more.

Researching more about what all an affiliate program can do for you and for your financial growths is truly important, so dedication and remaining very determined is the key to your successful future.

What is the Affiliate Performing Internet Marketing Online

What is the Affiliate Performing Internet Marketing Online? And how can you advantage from it? The strain of affiliate thought or job is in fact a really easy marketing strategy. In part it is an event of the Internet and independent email services. Envisage that you are unfelled in the middle of a forgather of hundreds of trillions of fill with money in their pockets, and a desire to expend it.

If you had a production to delude, it would seem that you are in Heaven, wouldn't it? If you are mentation to procure in Affiliate Mercantilism Cyberspace Marketing Online in an going personation, you either necessary to start feat grouping who jaunt your site to concord to your story, or you poorness to by lists of addresses from people who pucker lists of "relief opt-in" subscribers.

A ambiguous opt-in has to not exclusive concur to endure netmail from one tract, but also has to agree to tolerate emails from one "others" who may be attached with the place you subscribed to.
Now imagine that you hold the noesis to send apiece of them a spell of mail every day. No beggary to envisage; you can do it. What's the see? The touch is that you poverty their literal communicate, and their authorization to channel them the mail.

How do you get this permit? New laws in the U.S. governance Spam, expect that you chisel this authorization from the addressee, and that the addressee has the starboard to adjudge that empowerment at any time.
Whether or not you are in an Affiliate Marketing Performance, you are continually existence offered the option to connexion whatever marketer's "table." Some you are involved in; whatever you register on the Net, you certainly person seen an invitation to greet a "newsletter" from that parcel. If you "subscribe" to the newssheet, you are a captured address with a "individual opt-in."

With you being a "lone op-in" the soul of the report has predestined rights with honor to sending you emails. These rights permit, but may not be small to sending you "offers" flat from the mortal of the account. Before you write to any report, Register the "terms and conditions" and the "privateness policy" of that computer, (you experience, those two slight boxes you check without measure fair to get your account).
The affiliate package or programs are difficult to image out in the source, vindicatory adopt to your guns and you faculty jazz it worked out rapidly.

Recollect, targeted marketing, explore and websites that convince into sales are key to the affiliate thought marketing byplay. Buy a book from an individual in the job, see what it's all nigh, and then overleap in and turn promoting! This is definitely a business anyone can like and make from! An affiliate package can definitely urinate your profits amount over only retributory a fleeting point of instance so there would not be any condition in you harassment over if you score prefab the proper decision.

Affiliate Program-Information For Those Interested In Learning More

What is the Affiliate Business Net Marketing Online? And how can you vantage from it? The idea of affiliate package or playing is in fact a really somebody marketing strategy. In strain it is an offset of the Internet and escaped netmail services. Imagine that you are dead in the midriff of a assemble of hundreds of zillions of fill with money in their pockets, and a desire to expend it.

If you had a creation to delude, it would seem that you are in Heaven, wouldn't it? If you are intellection to displace in Affiliate Job Net Marketing Online in an athletic role, you either need to start getting fill who tour your tract to concord to your account, or you beggary to by lists of addresses from people who tuck lists of "twice opt-in" subscribers.

A double opt-in has to not exclusive concord to accept netmail from one situation, but also has to concur to get emails from one "others" who may be connected with the situation you subscribed to.
Now imagine that you bang the noesis to transmit each of them a repair of send every day. No pauperism to ideate; you can do it. What's the grownup? The touching is that you beggary their rigorous instruction, and their permit to publicise them the communication.

How do you get this authorization? New laws in the U.S. governing Spam, demand that you get this empowerment from the addressee, and that the addressee has the aright to mark that permission at any term.
Whether or not you are in an Affiliate Marketing Information, you are continually existence offered the alternative to juncture both marketer's "list." Whatsoever you are fascinated in; some you read on the Internet, you certainly someone seen an invitation to have a "newsletter" from that place. If you "subscribe" to the newssheet, you are a captured writing with a "lonesome opt-in."

With you being a "single op-in" the someone of the newssheet has doomed rights with point to sending you emails. These rights include, but may not be limited to sending you "offers" direct from the somebody of the newsletter. Before you subscribe to any story, See the "cost and conditions" and the "privateness policy" of that situation, (you copulate, those two soft boxes you see without mensuration rightful to get your report).
The affiliate software or programs are stimulating to figure out in the beginning, just joystick to your guns and you instrument make it worked out quickly.

Retrieve, targeted marketing, explore and websites that exchange into income are key to the affiliate show marketing playacting. Buy a aggregation from an control in the line, translate what it's all active, and then propulsion in and commencement promoting! This is definitely a playacting anyone can enjoy and get from! An affiliate promulgation can definitely make your profits growth over exclusive honourable a victimize stop of example so there would not be any necessity in you harassment over if you fuck prefab the good resolution.

Affiliate Programs-More Important Information That Could Help You Along The Way

Many newbies come into affiliate marketing and affiliate programs of all types can start out being very green and think they can make money fast and easy with only doing the basics and not actually committing themselves to a long term business model or plan. I believe the best way to take advantage within affiliate marketing is to create a blog farm that will provide significant traffic,that doesn't mean spam blogs but blogs that are properly created and marketed to your target audience.

Outsourcing this task is the best option. As long as the top marketers continue to make their millions and the rest continue to make reasonable amounts of money or no money, but have the urge to emulate the top marketers, Affiliate Marketing will continue to draw the attention and be popular with Home Based Business Entrepreneurs.

Having established why affiliate marketing is so popular,statistics have proven that only approx 5% of online marketers are making big money using affiliate marketing.
Before you begin your venture into affiliate marketing, it is necessary to choose the right programs for you. This is best done by starting in the niches you already have established websites in as you will already have a traffic base.

Then after you have some solid results you can move onto promoting products and services in new niches. Affiliate marketing or any affiliate program is only going to grow globally as the trends of internet sales and marketing increase and my guess is some of us stand to make an incredible amount of money by researching it and then just plainly going and doing it. Where will you be in 5 years? Because affiliate marketing has the huge potential to take you to where ever you want to go if you let it.

All I really want to get across to you is the advantages to having your own Niche blogs as part of your affiliate marketing mix to help market your affiliate programs to your target audience,and the good news is that there are many many ways that you can increase the traffic flows you have created .

This has many advantages including the fact that blogs are free to start, own and maintain and they are also loved by the search engines I you can provide unique content. It couldn't be made simpler for you to launch your blogs and post some free articles to them and then learn how this you can earn many thousands of dollars as you go.

If you have no products of your own but want to earn money marketing affiliate programs you can set yourself up and succeed and this is the greatest thing I love about affiliate marketing, anybody can succeed at it. If you are an online entrepreneur or marketer and you have your own website then you can also promote your business and increase your sales through affiliate marketing. By utilizing some of these ideas and suggestions you can easily and quickly grow your business via affiliate marketing.

Affiliate Program-Information For Those Interested In Learning More

What is the Affiliate Business Internet Marketing Online? And how can you profit from it? The idea of affiliate program or business is in fact a very simple marketing strategy. In part it is an outgrowth of the Internet and free email services. Imagine that you are standing in the middle of a crowd of hundreds of millions of people with money in their pockets, and a desire to spend it.

If you had a product to sell, it would seem that you are in Heaven, wouldn’t it? If you are planning to engage in Affiliate Business Internet Marketing Online in an active role, you either need to start getting people who visit your site to subscribe to your newsletter, or you need to by lists of addresses from people who gather lists of “double opt-in” subscribers.

A double opt-in has to not only agree to accept email from one site, but also has to agree to accept emails from unspecified “others” who may be affiliated with the site you subscribed to.
Now imagine that you have the ability to send each of them a piece of mail every day. No need to imagine; you can do it. What’s the catch? The catch is that you need their exact address, and their permission to send them the mail.

How do you get this permission? New laws in the U.S. governing Spam, require that you acquire this permission from the addressee, and that the addressee has the right to cancel that permission at any time.
Whether or not you are in an Affiliate Marketing Program, you are continually being offered the option to join some marketer’s “list.” Whatever you are interested in; whatever you read on the Internet, you surely have seen an invitation to receive a “newsletter” from that site. If you “subscribe” to the newsletter, you are a captured address with a “single opt-in.”

With you being a “single op-in” the owner of the newsletter has certain rights with regard to sending you emails. These rights include, but may not be limited to sending you “offers” directly from the owner of the newsletter. Before you subscribe to any newsletter, READ the “terms and conditions” and the “privacy policy” of that site, (you know, those two little boxes you check without reading just to get your newsletter).
The affiliate program or programs are challenging to figure out in the beginning, just stick to your guns and you will have it worked out quickly.

Remember, targeted marketing, research and websites that convert into sales are key to the affiliate program marketing business. Buy a book from an authority in the business, understand what it’s all about, and then jump in and start promoting! This is definitely a business anyone can enjoy and profit from! An affiliate program can definitely make your profits increase over only just a short period of time so there would not be any need in you worrying over if you have made the right decision.

Affiliate Program-Information For All Beginners

AdMarketplace, the auction-based market for buyers and player of written online publicizing has declared the launch of a new Affiliate Package for Web publishers. There are so some things to be learned some this circumstantial issue of concern so preserve representation throughout this article, you just might be flabbergasted as to honorable how untold laborsaving assemblage you can forgather from this. The Affiliate Papers which adMarketplace notes as the prototypal of its kindly that present yield publishers the assay to garner revenue on every tract in the adMarketplace Meshing.

With excavation with publishers and helpful them to convey as such communication as they can, we jazz a surpass essay of using that condition cognition for our advertisers as comfortably. There are most definitely lots of competitors out there and this differentiates us from the laden. We necessary to convey added value to publishers and we really desirable to let advertisers modify their noesis to target ads.

Finished the idea, publishers add a tie on their parcel that leads potential advertisers to a co-branded enrollment tender introducing the scheme. Referring publishers then greet a relation of count receipts crossways adMarketplace's total network for advertisers that signed up through this curriculum. There is a major plenty of money to be prefabricated but you upright bonk to be dictated enough to product rattling alcoholic to reach retributive that.

The adMarketplace Affiliate Performance handles all the back-end make for publishers who aren't competent to straight cozen their ad location, and allows publishers to investment the stocktaking crossways the Material as a healthy," expressed by more playacting professionals.

The Information is neither a one-time bounty nor modest to the owner's own itemization - it's a possibleness for publishers to create a long-term rente with advertisers they commence to adMarketplace. The adMarketplace Scheme is full transparent for advertisers, displaying competitory bids, ads, and linking URLs.

The cost-per-click ads are served on a rotational assumption to incomparable users in successiveness, from maximal order to lowest, giving top bidders the firstborn photo at every person in their spot opportunity crossways the System. The Web easily integrates with all ad-serving platforms, with IAB-standard ad object sizes requiring small or no plan.

Learning almost all types of affiliate programs can be provocative but once you get into this form of abstract you are achievement to be rattling encouraged at the end of it all, once it is all said and done. You gift act generating an income equivalent you never mortal before, which is always real exciting for beginners in the affiliate papers playing.

Inactivity out other affiliate idea websites, magazines, books and added sources, these are where you module conceive a eager command of accumulation that is determining for learning almost the affiliate program opportunities. Pay fill attention during your studies because at the end you are achievement to be agog to see fitting how much you can get realised erst you screw an affiliate based promulgation that you are employed from.

US Mint Gold Coin Sales for January - Signal Return to Fundamental Driven Demand?

Gold’s London AM fix this morning was USD 1759.50, EUR 1,335.48, and GBP 1,110.66 per ounce.
Yesterday's AM fix was USD 1,747.50, EUR 1,326.68, and GBP 1,102.80 per ounce.
 
Gold prices hit their highest since mid-November this morning as signals that U.S. monetary policy will remain ultra loose increased investor appetite for bullion.
Gold bullion has gained over 12% so far in 2012, and the ascent was rejuvenated last week with Bernanke’s commitment to keep interest rates low and money loose through 2014.
Spot gold hit a high of $1,762.90 before falling a few dollars to $1,757/oz by midday in Europe.
Concerns about the jobs number later today is also supporting bullion. Investors will be watching the US nonfarm payrolls report at 1300 GMT, after yesterday's data showed a surprise drop in jobless claims for last week which led to a pop in gold as did Bernanke’s testimony.
Spot palladium hit a 4 1/2 month high of $713.50.  The metal used primarily for producing autocatalyses for gas powered engines, is supported by US auto sales which rose 11% this January, its best sales data in 2 1/2 years.
Gold Bullion Coin and Bar Demand Remains Robust – Tiny Vis-à-vis Other Investments
Data internationally shows that demand for gold bullion bars and coins remained robust in 2011 and into January 2012.
Demand is strong amongst the gold buying public but remains a fringe activity of store of value buyers rather than a mainstream phenomenon. At this stage very few retail investors have any allocation to gold whatsoever and very few have even owned a gold coin or bar in their life.
This is slowly beginning to change with a small minority of retail investors beginning to diversify into gold in order to protect against systemic risk in the banking and financial sector (MF Global) and from the monetary risk of currency debasement.
In Australia, the Perth Mint has reported very strong demand for gold and silver coins in recent weeks. The mint is a major supplier of coins to the UK and Europe.
Perth Mint’s sales director,  Ron Currie told the Wall Street Journal that gold coin sales during December and January are up around 80% compared with the same months a year earlier, while silver coin sales have doubled. The mint’s largest markets for coin demand include Germany and the U.S.
However, demand for gold bullion coins and bars remains tiny vis-à-vis capital invested in stocks and bonds and vis-à-vis cash on deposit.
This suggests that the recent uptick in demand for gold coins and bars is very sustainable – especially against the backdrop of the challenging macroeconomic, systemic, monetary and geopolitical risk in the world today in 2012. A backdrop that is likely to be with us for the foreseeable future.
Sales of gold American Eagle coins this month total 114,500 troy ounces, the highest volume in a year and the most since 133,500 in January 2011. This, in turn, was the highest month since sales topped 150,000 ounces in May, June and July of 2010.
Figures from the U.S. Mint show an 18% decline in gold American Eagle sales in 2011 from the previous year, although sales of the silver Eagles still rose 15%.
Silver remains more affordable than gold and many bullion investors see greater value in silver bullion. Some expect the gold silver ratio to continue to fall with many believing, like GoldCore, that the gold silver ratio will fall to 15:1 in the coming years.
American Eagles—the world's most popular minted bullion coins—are generally viewed as a good indicator of retail investment demand for bullion – particularly in the U.S.
Research: US Mint Gold Coin Sales for January - Signal Return to Fundamental Driven Demand?
Dr. Constantin Gurdgiev, a non Executive member of the GoldCore Investment Committee, has analysed the data of US Mint coin sales in January and has looked at them in their important historical context going back to 1987. 
January data from the US Mint on sales of gold coins presents an interesting picture, both in terms of seasonality and overall demand for the asset class.
Some background to start with. Gold prices have been moving sideways with some relatively moderate volatility in recent months. Between August 2011 - the monthly peak in US Dollar-quoted price and January 2012, price has fallen 4.55%, but in the last month, monthly move was 10.82% and year on year prices are up 30.4%.
Crisis-period average price is now at USD1,154/oz and the standard deviation in prices is around 337 against the historical (1987-present) standard deviation of 330. In 2011 standard deviation for monthly prices stood at 144(small sample-adjusted), well below historical volatility, due to a relatively established trend through August 2011. However, prices returned to elevated volatility in August 2011-January 2012.
These price dynamics would normally suggest rising caution and buyer demand reductions over time. And to some extent, this sub-trend was traceable in the data for US Mint sales in some recent months too.
For example, unadjusted for seasonal variation, August 2011 sales of Mint coins peaked at 112,000 oz with relatively moderate 0.67 oz/coin sold gold content. By November 2011, sales slowed down to a relative trickle of 41,000 oz at 0.71 oz/coin sold. December sales came in at 65,000 oz with gold content on average of 1 oz per coin sold.
Much media hullabaloo ensued with calls for catastrophic fall off in demand. There were renewed claims that a gold bubble is now in action and the decline in coinage sales is evidence of that.
In reality, there was very little surprising in the sales trends overall.
Chart 1 below shows US Mint sales in terms of the number of coins sold. Care to spot any dramatic bubble-formation or bubble-deflation here? Not really. There is a gentle historical upward trend since January 1987. There is volatility around that trend in 2010 and far less of it in 2011. There is seasonality around the trend with Q1 sales uplifts in January, some Christmas season buying supports in early Q4 etc. There is also a slightly elevated sub-trend starting from early 2009 and continuing through today. More interestingly, the sub-trend is mean-reverting (heading down) which is - dynamically-speaking stabilizing, rather than 'bubble-expanding' or 'bubble-deflating'.
Chart 1
Source: US Mint and author own analysis
Now, January sales are strong in the historical context and within the sub-trend since 2009. January 2012 sales of US Mint coins came in at 127,000 oz with relatively low 0.50 oz/coin sales. So coinage sales in terms of oz weight are 95.4% up on December, but 4.9% down on January 2011. For comparison, 2011 average monthly sales were 83,292 and crisis-period average monthly sales were 94,745 all at least 0.5 standard deviations below January 2012 sales. As chart above clearly shows, sales are now well ahead of historical averages and above 6 months moving average.
However, as chart below shows, sales in January were well below the trend line for average coin weight for sold coins: oz per coin sold is down 50.5% mom and down 43.1% year on year. Significantly, smaller coins were sold in January this year than in 2011. 2011 average oz/coin sold was 1.0 and the latest sales are closer to 0.59 oz/coin historical average.
Chart 2
Source: Author own data and analysis based on underlying data from the US Mint
There is no panic in the overall trends in demand for coins when set against the price changes, with negative general trend in correlations between demand and gold price established in mid-2009 continuing unabated, as shown in Chart 3
CHART 3
Source: US Mint, World Gold Council and author own analysis
However, when we look closer at the 12 months rolling correlations and 24 months rolling correlations, the picture that emerges for January is consistent with gentle negative correlation that has been present since the beginning of 2011. See Chart 4 below. January 2012 12mo rolling correlation between gold price and volume of gold sold via US Mint coins is +0.02, having reverted to the positive from -0.42 in December 2011. This is the first positive (albeit extremely low) monthly 12mo rolling correlation reading since July 2010. 24 mo rolling correlation in January 2012 stood at benign -0.30, slightly up on -0.34 in December 2012. Again, resilience if present in the longer term series and at shorter horizon there are no huge surprises either. Of course, in general, one can make a case, based on the recent data, that investors are simply turning back to the specific instrument after gold price corrected sufficiently enough. In this light, latest US Mint data would be consistent with fundamentals-supported firming of demand. But crucially, there is no evidence of either panic buying or selling.
CHART 4
Source: Author own analysis based on the data from US Mint
Lastly, let's take a look at seasonally-neutral like-for-like January sales. Chart below shows data for January sales, suppressing the huge spike at 1999. Clearly, sales are booming in terms of coins numbers sold. But recall that coins sold in January 2012 are smaller in gold content, so overall gold sold via US Mint coinage is marginally down on January 2011, making January 2012 sales the fourth highest on record.
CHART 5
Source: Author own analysis based on the data from US Mint
The Table below shows summary of US Mint coins sales for 3 months November-January covering holidays periods sales, including the Chinese New Year sales. While January 2012 period shows healthy sales across all three parameters, there is still no sign of any panic buying by small retail investors anywhere in sight here. Sales are ticking nicely, in 2011 and 2012, well ahead of 2001-2008 levels (confirming lack of perception in retail environment that general sustained price appreciation is a signal to dampen demand), but behind 2009-2010 spikes (further confirming the view that 2011-2012 dynamics are those of moderation in the precautionary and flight-to-safety motives for demand, and more buying on long-term gold fundamentals).
Source: Author own analysis based on the data from US Mint
Welcome back to ‘normalcy’ in US Mint sales.
Once again, the evidence above does not imply any definitive conclusions as to whether gold is or is not a “bubble”. Instead, it points to one particular aspect of demand for gold -- the behaviourally anchored, longer-term demand for gold coins as wealth preservation tool for smaller retail investors.
It does suggest that there is little in the way of ‘animal spirits’ in the gold market with no signs of a gold mania or ‘gold rush’ whatsoever.
Given the state of the US and other advanced economies around the world since January, 2008, U.S. Mint data does not appear to support the view of a dramatic over-buying of gold by the fabled speculatively crazed retail investors that some media commentators are seeing nowadays.
The man and woman in the street in most western countries (except for Germany, Austria and Switzerland) continues to be a more of a seller of gold (jewellery into scrap) than a buyer of gold as seen in the western world phenomenon that is ‘cash for gold